Gary Armida's Blog
During the Winter Meetings in Nashville, there was quite a buzz over a proposed three team deal that involved the Indians and Diamondbacks. The deal never came to fruition in Nashville, but a week later finally saw a three team deal struck. The Cincinnati Reds brought it all together as their willingness to part with Didi Gregorius, their young 22 year old shortstop. They are willing because of the presence of Zack Cozart, their 26 year old second year shortstop who played in 138 games as rookie.
Because the Reds were willing to part with Gregorius, they were able to address their need for a leadoff hitter. The first part of the deal sent Gregorius and center fielder Drew Stubbs to the Cleveland Indians for Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald. The Indians then shipped Gregorius to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right handed pitcher and former number one draft pick Trevor Bauer. In addition, first baseman Lars Anderson and lefty reliever Tony Sipp went to Arizona while the Indians received relievers Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw.
It is a deal that immediately upgrades the Reds as it addresses one of their main weaknesses of 2012. The Cleveland Indians get a potential number one starter for a player they were going to lose at the end of the season while the Diamondbacks get a potential elite defender at shortstop with questionable offensive tools.
The Cincinnati Reds won 96 games last season on the strength of one of the best pitching staffs in Major League Baseball, an above average defense, and the home run ball. Despite all of those strengths and leading the National League Central Division for 132 days, the Reds actually were a flawed offense. They ranked just 9th in the NL in runs scored and just 12th with an on base percentage of .315. The doubles and home run offense was enough to win the division because of the tremendous pitching staff, but, ultimately, it was not enough to get past the divisional round of the playoffs.
Their statistics would most assuredly look better had Joey Votto been able to play in more than 111 games, but the Reds’ lineup that will now feature Todd Frazier on a full-time basis at third base was in need of a leadoff hitter. Last season, Reds’ leadoff hitters batted just .208/.254/.327. Given that their second place hitters posted an on base percentage of just .310, it is easy to see why the Reds wouldn’t have a player with more than 89 runs scored or more than 80 runs driven in. The Reds have one of the top five hitters in all of baseball hitting third, but have difficulty maximizing his value because he comes up in a bunch of empty base situations.
The Reds have addressed that need by acquiring Shin-Soo Choo, along with infielder Jason Donald from the Cleveland Indians. Donald will be organizational depth, but Choo will replace Drew Stubbs in centerfield and atop the lineup. Stubbs struggled through much of the season, hitting just .215/.277/.333. While there will be legitimate worries about Choo’s ability to play centerfield, the upgrade on the offensive end will more than compensate for any downgrade on defense.
Shin-Soo Choo has been one of the most underrated hitters in Major League Baseball over the past couple of years. Since becoming a full-time player in 2008 for the Indians, Choo has averaged .289/.382/.458 with season averages of 31 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs, 70 RBI, and 19 stolen bases. While Drew Stubbs still has promise, the Reds are a win now team. They can’t afford to wait on Stubbs. Choo immediately makes them better and will provide Joey Votto more RBI opportunities.
Choo is likely a one year rental for the Reds, but considering they trade from a strength with their shortstop depth and do give up Stubbs, they make a wise deal. And, they have bought a year until uber-prospect Billy Hamilton is ready to take over centerfield. With just one move, they have addressed a weakness. Choo’s addition should lead to more runs scored. And, his addition makes them the favorite to win the Central Division and the “sneaky” favorite to win the League championship over the high salaried Dodgers.
While the Reds benefit the most for 2013, the biggest winner of the deal is the Cleveland Indians. The Indians accomplish one of their most important goals by acquiring Trevor Bauer. The third overall pick of the 2011 draft fell quickly out of favor with the Arizona Diamondbacks due to assorted disagreements that included his throwing program. Bauer is a big believer in long toss and is viewed as extreme within the industry. However, most studies support Bauer’s long toss program compared to the views of an industry that has spent almost $1 billion on injured pitcher salaries since 2009.
Bauer is a power pitcher who has struck out 200 batters in his two year, 156 inning Minor League career. Entering his age 22 season, Bauer is on the cusp of being Major League ready. The Diamondbacks promoted him to the Major Leagues during the 2012 season, but he surprisingly struggled, mostly due to his command. He walked 13 batters in his 16.1 Major League innings. He allowed 14 hits, 2 home runs, and 11 earned runs. But, despite all of that wildness and all of those runs scored, Bauer did strike out 17 Major League hitters. And, when he got sent down to Triple-A, he dominated, finishing the Triple-A portion of his season with a 2.85 ERA in 14 starts along with 8.1 H/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 10.6 K/9.
The Indians are in the middle of a rebuilding effort. At the Winter Meetings, Manager Terry Francona expressed that there was a lot of work to be done and that the Indians are going in the right direction. He also added that they needed Ubaldo Jimenez to pitch like an ace again. Today’s trade lessens the pressure on Jimenez. Bauer has the ceiling to be that number one pitcher. The rebuilding Indians have a pitcher to build around and that will be around when the rebuilding is finished. They also get him at an abnormally low cost.
Everything this offseason has been about overpayment. But, the Indians managed to acquire one of the brightest pitching prospects in the game for a player who was certain to leave at the end of the season. They get him for a player that everyone knew they were trying to trade. And, they get him without giving up their Major League shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. They can now either keep Cabrera or shop him for more pieces.
Along with Bauer, the Indians receive center fielder Drew Stubbs. Stubbs, as stated, struggled last season in Cincinnati and hasn’t progressed as most foresaw. But, he is entering his age 28 season, has rated well by defensive metrics in three of his four seasons, and does possess some power and speed. He is a downgrade from Choo, but he will solidify the Indians offense, give them a speed threat at the bottom of their order, and could still have some upside. And, he is under team control until 2016. The Indians also get two potentially effective relievers in Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw. Neither are stars, but the two will lengthen the Indians bullpen, something that is paramount given their young rotation.
The deal is the best case scenario for General Manager Chris Antonetti. He maximized Choo’s value by acquiring a potential long term ace along with a serviceable center fielder with some upside. Pitching prospects always come with risks, but Bauer’s training methods seem modern and based in sound science. That doesn’t guarantee long-term health, but it does minimize the risk. The Indians needed a young pitcher to build around as their system doesn’t have that high end talent. Trevor Bauer is that guy. Now, the Indians have to further his development and build around him. Because of this deal, they are going in the right direction.
The most puzzling aspect of the deal comes from the Diamondbacks. General Manager Kevin Towers was not happy with Bauer, but he seems to have undersold a commodity that all teams desire: young pitching. Towers has said that his new shortstop Didi Gregorius is one of the best he has seen, even comparing him to a young Derek Jeter. Gregorius comes with a sterling reputation for his glove, already perceived as an elite defender. But, his offense is still in doubt. The 22 year old, lefty hitting shortstop has been in the Minor Leagues for five years. In 443 career games, he has posted a slash line of .271/.323/.376. In 1,735 at bats, he has hit just 69 doubles, 27 doubles, and 20 home runs. He doesn’t walk or strike out all that much.
In other words, he isn’t a sure thing. The same was said of Omar Vizquel all those years ago, but the Diamondbacks gave up a top 10 prospect for a shortstop and a couple of replacement parts. It just doesn’t add up for the Diamondbacks. Towers may not like Bauer, but unlike the Indians with Choo, he doesn’t maximize value. Organizations need young, power pitchers. There is a need because they are scarce. Towers could’ve and should’ve gotten more for Bauer.
It is too early to determine whether or not Towers made the wrong choice. Gregorius does have talent and is highly regarded. If he can hit and can maintain the projected elite glove, the deal is more palatable. If Towers is right about his new shortstop, he did get value. But, as of now, the Diamondbacks got the least talented package of this three team deal.
The Reds are now a more complete lineup. They have a legitimate leadoff hitter and someone at the top of the lineup who actually gets on base. They do gamble with their outfield defense, but it is a well-calculated, win-now move that could propel them to the World Series.
The Indians finally have a young, potentially elite starter who is just about ready for the Major Leagues. They get the most upside of the deal and give up a part that they were already going to lose at the end of the year. Along with Bauer, they get three players who will play key roles in the next couple of years.
The Diamondbacks take the biggest risk as they don’t get a guaranteed star. They get a shortstop with so much promise, but just as many questions about his offense.
There are positive and negatives for each team in this deal. All three teams do somewhat gamble. The Reds gamble with their defense. The Indians gamble on the long term health on a young pitcher. And, the Diamondbacks gamble on their shortstop’s offensive ability. The gambles for the Reds and Indians make sense and were paid appropriately. The Diamondbacks appear to be gambling a bit too much.
Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports and also maintains his site, fullcountpitch.com. Join him on twitter @garyarmida
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As someone who has watched Choo during his big league career, he seems to struggle when he puts a lot of pressure on himself. He had his worst season after he got busted for DUI and was trying to make it up to everyone. I could see him struggling this year with the weight of his impending free agency on his mind. He does have a rocket arm, but he provided a lot of "hide your eyes" moments in RF, so it could be an adventure for the Reds in CF.